Lindsay
Heger
Ph.D. Candidate, Political Science
University of California, San Diego
Email: lheger 'at' ucsd.edu
I am currently a Ph.D. candidate in Political Science at the University of California, San Diego. My
interests straddle the fields of comparative politics and international
relations, focusing generally on unconventional violence, terrorism, civil war,
ethnic politics, and processes of democratization.
My
dissertation analyzes terrorist target selection in contemporary conflicts such
as Israel, Northern Ireland, and Sri Lanka, where non-state groups seek
concessions from democratic governments. The question motivating my research
is: in democracies, why do some terrorist groups attack civilians while others
do not? Given the low logistical costs and potentially high benefits from
attacking actors closely involved in the political vetting process, why do many
groups go to great lengths to avoid civilian casualties? I approach this
question by examining the relationship between violent organizations and their
non-member community supporters. I argue targeting civilians imposes heavy
costs on a group's supporters
because of the reaction it elicits from governing officials. A government's defensive and offensive reaction to civilian attacks leads
to more restrictions on civilian freedom and more repressive counter measures.
Given this reaction, terrorists select their targets strategically to maximize
their influence while still maintaining, and often expanding, their community
support base. Theoretically I develop two central claims. First, the easier it
is for community members to punish violent groups for their actions, the more
likely groups will opt not to attack civilians, concentrating their violence
against non-civilian targets instead. Secondly, violent organizations are most
likely to target civilians when they have the resources to offset the costs of
these attacks for their supporters.
Through
large-N analysis and detailed case research, I show how a group's redistributive efforts and participation in electoral
politics affect the likelihood it attacks civilians. My empirical work on this
subject presents novel data on group characteristics, including their political
(non-violent) and redistributive activities. Using this data, I test my claims
on a cross-national dataset of attacks over the last 40 years. I also employ
detailed case research to verify the internal validity of my theories, focusing
on the Provisional Irish Republican Army in Northern Ireland. I trace the
history of this group, mostly from the late 1970's through the peace agreement, paying particular attention
to how their targeting choices shifted when it took up the ballot box by way of
Sinn Fein.
Links:
Classes:
Political
Inquiry PS30 Students
PS 142P Crisis Areas in World Politics
PS142P
Crisis Areas in World Politics Final Essay Prompt